Supertrends

Winning Investment Strategies for the Coming Decades

What will the world be like in year 2020? Or in 2030, 2040 and 2050? - Where will it be most interesting to work, build businesses or invest? - Where will the greatest growth and biggest profits occur?

Supertrends Video

During much of May, 2009 I found myself pondering these questions. The reason? - I had been invited to make a keynote speech at the Red Herring Europe 100 conference in Berlin entitled nothing less than “The Future of Technology”. Evidently, when you speak about how technology will evolve, you also have to consider where demand will come from, how demographics will change, and much more. So to prepare my presentation, I ended up thinking about not only technology, but also a whole lot of other issues.

I made the presentation on April 1st, and afterwards I had some very interesting discussions about the future with some of the delegates. As I sat in the plane flying out of Berlin that same afternoon, I decided to write a book about the future of politics, conflict, economics, demographics, environment, lifestyles, business, finance, business sectors and...yes, technology.

Here is why I made that decision: From time to time I have noticed how almost all business people – including myself – overwhelmingly seek information about the short to medium term. “What are 12 months forward consensus earnings?”, “Which mobile phone manufacturers are currently taking market share?”, and “Who will win the election in Japan?” This kind of information may be important, but I have discovered that the times in my life where I personally have made the best investments and had the greatest fun in business, was where I got the really big picture right and took long term positions against the prevailing mood or ahead of the game. I have also noticed that to have fun and to succeed, it’s not enough to play your game well - it is far more important to choose the right game to play. When things worked for me, I really was in the right place, the right time, as they say.

Supertrends is primarily a book for investors, but I also think it should be very relevant for high school students who are about to chose where to study after graduation, and for policy makers and even anyone else who is curious about what the future may bring. Writing it was tremendous fun, and I hope reading it will be a joy too.

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