Lars Tvede - my book on the future

The world is now facing staggering change, including exponential performance growth in many technologies. We can expect computers that are smarter than people, self-driven cars and a truly intelligent Internet. We are also facing a biotechnological revolution enabling personalized medicine, fourth generation biofuels, radical extension of human life expectancy, exponential growth in farm yields, and even the recreation of extinct species. How do you invest in these sectors?

Furthermore, our energy sector is facing a complete transformation which will eventually make our energy supply limitless. Meanwhile, our population will grow, age and urbanize, and - largely due to emerging market growth - global purchasing power will have quadrupled by 2050. What will this mean for commodity prices, the environment and growth sectors such as real estate, global finance and luxury?

Supertrends explains not only what will happen, but also how and why. If you need to be prepared for the rest of your life, this is the book for you.

Front Cover

Book excerpt

“What will the world be like in year 2020? Or in 2030, 2040 and 2050? - Where will it be most interesting to work, build businesses or invest? - Where will the greatest growth and biggest profits occur?

During much of May, 2009 I found myself pondering these questions.

The reason? - I had been invited to make a keynote speech at the Red Herring Europe 100 conference in Berlin entitled nothing less than “The Future of Technology”. Evidently, when you speak about how technology will evolve, you also have to consider where demand will come from, how demographics will change, and much more. So to prepare my presentation, I ended up thinking about not only technology, but also a whole lot of other issues.

I made the presentation on April 1st, and afterwards I had some very interesting discussions about the future with some of the delegates. As I sat in the plane flying out of Berlin that same afternoon, I decided to write a book about the future of politics, conflict, economics, demographics, environment, lifestyles, business, finance, business sectors and...yes, technology.

Here is why I made that decision: From time to time I have noticed how almost all business people – including myself – overwhelmingly seek information about the short to medium term. “What are 12 months forward consensus earnings?”, “Which mobile phone manufacturers are currently taking market share?”, and “Who will win the election in Japan?” This kind of information may be important, but I have discovered that the times in my life where I personally have made the best investments and had the greatest fun in business, was where I got the really big picture right and took long term positions against the prevailing mood or ahead of the game. I have also noticed that to have fun and to succeed, it’s not enough to play your game well - it is far more important to choose the right game to play. When things worked for me, I really was in the right place, the right time, as they say.

Supertrends is primarily a book for investors, but I also think it should be very relevant for high school students who are about to chose where to study after graduation, and for policy makers and even anyone else who is curious about what the future may bring. Writing it was tremendous fun, and I hope reading it will be a joy too.”